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Herbert Hoover a Model for Economic Recovery, Says Japanese Leader

Well, he doesn’t come out and say so, but actions speak louder than words. We read that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe “urged Japan’s business leaders Tuesday to raise wages for employees, saying the move could help stimulate domestic demand and beat more than decade-long deflation.”

That was precisely Hoover’s policy in 1929-30: urge business leaders to keep wages up while prices were falling — in other words, to give people a raise during a depression. Amazingly, fewer people were hired! Can you believe it?

This policy of stimulating consumption is intended to “stimulate domestic demand.” Of course, if fewer people are employed in the first place thanks to the artificially high wage rates, it’s not clear how “domestic demand” will be stimulated.

Also, take the policy to its logical conclusion. Let’s say consumption is what is needed, as the man on the street believes. Saving is bad, consumption good. Here’s the result:

I buy a shirt. The shirt man takes the money he earns from selling me the shirt and buys some groceries. The grocer takes that money and buys theater tickets. And so on. Note what the shirt man and the grocer do not do: they do not save and productively expend their revenues. They do not pay wages (since that wouldn’t be consumption!), they do not pay business-related bills (again, not consumption), they do not place orders for additional merchandise for their stores (this, too, is not consumption). They just keep spending and spending and spending on consumer goods. The result is simply lower inventories. Meanwhile, capital is not being maintained.

It turns out, then, that the vast bulk of spending in the economy is not consumption (that 70% figure is based on misconception upon misconception) but the gross savings of capitalists as they make productive expenditures along the structure of production.

Unlearn the Propaganda!

  • http://rosarynovice.stblogs.com/ Augustine

    Japan’s woes are much more than economic. Demographics are destiny.

    For the last decade, there have been fewer children under
    15 than adults over 65 years of age in Japan; there are more deaths
    than birth; its workforce is set to decrease by over 5 million in this
    decade; how could Japan possibly grow? It will shrink economically,
    both because its consumers will decrease and because its workforce will
    shrink and productivity cannot increase indefinitely, at least not without a major technological breakthrough, and has actually decreased lately in Japan.

    Japan is merely the first developed country to experience a demographic crunch; others will surely follow it. As the Chinese would say, the next decades will be filled with interesting years.

  • Anonymous

    “But Hoover was the laissez-faire guy, right?”

    - Me, before I started reading and following Tom Woods, Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, Hayek, Hazlitt, etc. Thanks for enlightening me, Tom. Loved your article on Mises.org about the forgotten depression of 1920.

  • Mike

    Heh, some people will just never learn will they?

  • http://twitter.com/PKThomahawk Paul Thoma

    Well stated and to the point. I wish more economic commentaries would explain this basic concept that escapes so many. Savings and production are key. Apple didn’t start making ipods and iphones because people were lined up at their door asking to buy them. They didn’t exist! The company first had to deploy capital to develop, produce, market and sell them.